Matthew Paddock Blog Post #2

Blog Post #2

In recent days, Russian President Vladimir Putin has tested the resolve of the United States and other Western powers after he officially recognized separatist regions of Ukraine and subsequently launched a full scale invasion. Though this move is a large gamble for Putin, I believe he is confident that the reward of a “successful” mission will certainly outweigh the potential risks including sanctions and international condemnation. While Putin has stated that he ordered military intervention to protect Russians from persecution, I disagree with this propagated notion that has virtually no corroborating evidence. Rather, I argue that Putin aims to upend the current liberal world order and transform the balance of power established between nations. 

In the face of threats from rising powers including China, Russia, Iran, and others, the United States has still managed to remain the dominant global hegemon that always maintains an influential presence concerning international affairs. As we discussed in class, the extensive network of allies and institutional organizations that the US possesses is a major strength that Russia does not have access to. More networked states are economically stronger, can collaborate together regarding surveillance and intelligence, and are always more powerful as a group compared to a sole state. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, I contend that Russia has found itself on the outside looking inward, striving to become what it once was and regain global recognition and respect. To achieve this goal and contrast this imbalance of power which has favored the United States and the West since the second World War, Putin views Ukraine as an opportunity to reassert himself and his nation back into the global forefront. 

Putin is also extremely concerned about Western encroachment into countries that are still within the Russian sphere of influence. Since the early 2000’s, NATO has tried to expand their influence into eastern Europe. In 2002, central and eastern European nations including Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, and Slovenia were invited to join at the Prague Summit. They eventually agreed to become members of NATO in 2004 while Albania and Croatia followed in 2009. Montenegro and North Macedonia are the most recent nations to join, while Georgia and Ukraine were recognized as aspiring members prior to the conflict. After twenty years of NATO expansion, it is surely evident to Putin that the West is not afraid of cultivating relationships with former Soviet satellite states. Friendly invitations from Western international organizations like NATO offer economically disadvantaged states like Georgia and Ukraine the opportunity to engage with economic powerhouses and uplift themselves to have their voices heard on a global stage. Due to the economic and political disadvantages that his own country faces, the benefits that Putin could offer these nations would be no match. Because the United States and other western countries within NATO were pursuing such avenues, I believe Putin was threatened by a further imbalance of power, again shifting the scales in the West’s favor. Thus, to preserve Russia’s dominance in eastern Europe and prove to the West that he is not to be trifled with, Putin committed to taking Ukraine by any means necessary.  

Putin’s Russia will not remain a status quo power and is seemingly not interested in playing by the “rules of the game.” Rather, he has elected to double down on a dangerous gamble in order to upset the system, preserve Russia’s preeminence in eastern Europe, and test the will of the United States. Whatever the case, dire consequences will affect both sides. Exorbitant amounts of money will be spent, diplomatic relationships have already fractured, and blood has been shed by Russians and Ukrainians alike.