Laurel Utterback Blog Post #2

President Putin is now facing a serious dilemma following his decision to order Russian troops to invade Ukraine after deciding to recognize the Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk, as an independent. I strongly believe that ultimately, Putin will be faced with a choice of following his imperialistic agenda or listening to his crippled nation and economy that are facing the immediate impacts of the developing conflict. Just because the United States isn’t directly putting troops on the ground in Ukraine does not mean that sanctions are a less effective measure. In some ways, Putin is daring the West as he is continuing to order Russian troops to continue their route into Ukraine while the Russian economy has already started to tank, a trend that we have seen historically that I will elaborate on later in this post.  

As we talked about in class, the impacts of necessary goods, such as oil and gas, are large gambles in the crisis. Germany took the first step to cut off the Nord Stream 2 Russian pipelines, yet countries worldwide are starting to heavily consider the effects that their economy will have due to Putin’s decision. Economics and trade are key role players in the wellbeing of a nation, and to say that other countries will not see the effects of the crisis is completely false. Trade is based on the intertwinement of nations, both directly and indirectly. Though the newly enforced sanctions from both Europe and the United States are aimed to control Russia, ultimately, all economies will be affected in a negative way. The more sanctions hurt Russia, the more they hurt all countries that are in some way involved, but there is no reason to enforce a weak sanction, as that doesn’t really do anything in the grand scheme of things.  

The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 beautifully exemplifies the true costs of invading another country. Much like the current Ukraine situation, Putin underestimated the true monetary costs of what it would take to completely take control of a country. Though the Crimea operation was a success in that Russia ultimately occupied the area and claimed it, its economy suffered immensely. However, Putin concentrated on the growing support, or the lessening opposition, rather than the financial consequences. In the past few days, Russia’s stock market has absolutely plummeted, making many questions about how long Russia will actually be able to occupy Ukraine. With this comes the uncertainty of the capabilities that Ukraine has in fighting back. After all, Putin also underestimated the number of people in Ukraine’s largest cities that are resistant to the Russian invasion.